I've been sent news and a helpful report about a CentreForum event that took place at the Bloomberg's London office entitled: “America Votes: Implications for the US and the World.” The two speakers were Dr Stefan Halper, University of Cambridge, and Sir Robert Worcester, founder of MORI.
Both men said, unsurprisingly, they expected Senator Obama to become the next President of the United States.
They said it is too late for Senator McCain to change strategy and shift tact. There are no more debates left. However, they said if McCain is to have any hope of winning he will need to convince the one in five floating voters who are either white, young educated women or older white people to vote for him. He has no chance of winning round Black or Hispanic voters. However, his current attacks on Obama’s character are turning off the women voters he needs to attract.
They said if he fails to win round the floating voters the only hope for McCain would be a terrorist attack (unlikely, though not impossible) or a major Obama gaffe (again unlikely, given Obama’s cool, cautious character).
Some have suggested the so-called ‘Bradley Effect’ could come into play. They said they thought the Bradley effect would be unlikely to determine the outcome of this election. They said if it were to be prevalent it would be in the ‘red’ states (i.e. Republican states) and only affect the polling results by 2 percent nationwide at most. However, if the election was very close then it could of course have an impact if it did indeed materialise this election.
The choice of Sarah Palin by McCain as his running mate was strongly criticised as a strategic and tactical mistake. He had only met her once before and due to the lack of time left for him to choose his running mate, scrutiny of her suitability was minimal. She fitted the profile the Republicans were looking for: woman with kids, pro-life, pro-guns, and folksy charm to appeal to the Western states. However, she was all this for the first two weeks but then her credibility began to unravel in the television studios. In addition, she comes from Alaska which does not have many Electoral College votes and the state always votes Republican anyway. McCain would have been better choosing someone from a swing state. Furthermore, McCain was badly advised if he thought that pro-life Palin would be able to win over the disaffected but pro-choice Hilary Clinton female Democrats. McCain’s choice of Palin has damaged his credibility in terms of judgement.
Even though they thought Obama would become President, the panel said Obama is likely to disappoint the rest of the world, particularly Europeans. He will not be the radical departure from the Bush years they think he will be and the enormous expectations people have for Obama can only lead to disappointment. If he does have a single radical idea in his head, and the panel was hugely sceptical that he does, he ought to try and implement it immediately before Congress and the rest of the world ends his honeymoon period. For Obama’s part, he is likely to become very frustrated with the rest of the world, especially the Europeans. He has made Afghanistan (and Pakistan) key to his foreign policy but he is unlikely to find any joy in persuading European governments to put more troops on the ground and in conflict situations.
Predictions
Sir Robert Worcester – Obama will win; Gordon Brown will be the best friend of the new President, whoever he is; 2012 – expect a Republican recovery, expectations are far too high for Obama; and the Republican candidate for 2012 will be General Petraeus.
Dr Stefan Halper – Obama to win; and with a Democratic Congress very likely, Obama will find it really difficult to win a second term in office. Americans do not like one party in control of both Houses of Congress and the Presidency.
British Politics
The panel also briefly touched on UK politics. Sir Robert said Cameron had grown enormously in stature these past three years. However, he said Cameron’s biggest mistake has been ignoring the fact that all leaders should have a kitchen cabinet within their organisation which fully utilises all a party’s experience. He said people like John Gummer and Ken Clarke should be brought into Cameron’s inner circle and expected they would be closer to an election.
They said it is too late for Senator McCain to change strategy and shift tact. There are no more debates left. However, they said if McCain is to have any hope of winning he will need to convince the one in five floating voters who are either white, young educated women or older white people to vote for him. He has no chance of winning round Black or Hispanic voters. However, his current attacks on Obama’s character are turning off the women voters he needs to attract.
They said if he fails to win round the floating voters the only hope for McCain would be a terrorist attack (unlikely, though not impossible) or a major Obama gaffe (again unlikely, given Obama’s cool, cautious character).
Some have suggested the so-called ‘Bradley Effect’ could come into play. They said they thought the Bradley effect would be unlikely to determine the outcome of this election. They said if it were to be prevalent it would be in the ‘red’ states (i.e. Republican states) and only affect the polling results by 2 percent nationwide at most. However, if the election was very close then it could of course have an impact if it did indeed materialise this election.
The choice of Sarah Palin by McCain as his running mate was strongly criticised as a strategic and tactical mistake. He had only met her once before and due to the lack of time left for him to choose his running mate, scrutiny of her suitability was minimal. She fitted the profile the Republicans were looking for: woman with kids, pro-life, pro-guns, and folksy charm to appeal to the Western states. However, she was all this for the first two weeks but then her credibility began to unravel in the television studios. In addition, she comes from Alaska which does not have many Electoral College votes and the state always votes Republican anyway. McCain would have been better choosing someone from a swing state. Furthermore, McCain was badly advised if he thought that pro-life Palin would be able to win over the disaffected but pro-choice Hilary Clinton female Democrats. McCain’s choice of Palin has damaged his credibility in terms of judgement.
Even though they thought Obama would become President, the panel said Obama is likely to disappoint the rest of the world, particularly Europeans. He will not be the radical departure from the Bush years they think he will be and the enormous expectations people have for Obama can only lead to disappointment. If he does have a single radical idea in his head, and the panel was hugely sceptical that he does, he ought to try and implement it immediately before Congress and the rest of the world ends his honeymoon period. For Obama’s part, he is likely to become very frustrated with the rest of the world, especially the Europeans. He has made Afghanistan (and Pakistan) key to his foreign policy but he is unlikely to find any joy in persuading European governments to put more troops on the ground and in conflict situations.
Predictions
Sir Robert Worcester – Obama will win; Gordon Brown will be the best friend of the new President, whoever he is; 2012 – expect a Republican recovery, expectations are far too high for Obama; and the Republican candidate for 2012 will be General Petraeus.
Dr Stefan Halper – Obama to win; and with a Democratic Congress very likely, Obama will find it really difficult to win a second term in office. Americans do not like one party in control of both Houses of Congress and the Presidency.
British Politics
The panel also briefly touched on UK politics. Sir Robert said Cameron had grown enormously in stature these past three years. However, he said Cameron’s biggest mistake has been ignoring the fact that all leaders should have a kitchen cabinet within their organisation which fully utilises all a party’s experience. He said people like John Gummer and Ken Clarke should be brought into Cameron’s inner circle and expected they would be closer to an election.
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