The divergent needs of Brown and Labour

Just before Christmas I posted that Gordon Brown should call a general election this year rather than hang on until 2010.

However, yesterday the PM gave perhaps his strongest indication yet that there will be NO general election this year. While on his regional tour, as part of his strategy to show he is a man of action, Brown said:

"I've got no intention of even thinking about an election. We are getting on with the business of trying to sort out the problems that arise." Questioned on whether that meant there would be no election this year, he added: "That means it's the last thing on my mind. The first thing on my mind is that I'm here to help the families and businesses in this country come through this global problem."

Ok, he did not categorically rule out an election this year, but it does now seem unlikely.

However, I still strongly believe that it would be in Labour's best interest if the election was this year. This got me thinking that perhaps I had got something wrong in my last post on the election timing issue. I had said that it would be in Brown's interest to have a election in 2009 because it offered him the best chance of victory before the economy destroyed his electoral chances. But perhaps Gordon Brown's interests and those of the Labour Party are not one and the same.

Both obviously want to win the next general election but what if victory is beyond Brown/Labour, whenever the general election is held? If this is the case, it will be in Labour's interests to have an early election to minimise losses but it will be in Brown's interest to hang on until the last possible moment in 2010 to maximise the time he gets to spend as Prime Minister.

All big ifs, i must admit. Labour is by no means dead and burried. But if Brown chooses not to hold an election this year, it seems to me he has calculated that he cannot win one. By holding out until 2010, power hungry Brown will be putting his own personal interest above that of his party. If Labour suffer a heavy defeat in 2010, as i would expect, and are subsequently out of office for a substantial time, Brown's legacy to Labour won't be a pleasant one! Shame!