The two dates most commonly speculated about for a general election in 2009 are the 26 February and the 4 June.
On the 15 December the Sun’s political columnist and former political editor, Trevor Kavanagh, ran a story claiming that Brown could call a February general election. However, in an interview with the Daily Mirror today, Brown ruled out a February election. He said: "I want to get on with the work of getting the economy moving and making sure our health service, our schools and our policing is the best it can be." Asked if that meant ruling out an election in February or March, Brown said: "Yes. I am not interested in speculation about the election."
So if February is not on the cards, what about the 4 June – the same day as the local and European Parliamentary elections? This has to be considered a real possibility. Although the government is doing its best not to stoke speculation about an ‘early’ general election, weary of the trouble it got itself into in October 2007, in his interview with the Daily Mirror Gordon Brown could have ruled out a June 2009 election or even an election at all in 2009. He could even have announced the general election will be in May or June 2010. However, he is not going to rule out a June election next year because the ability to set the timing of a general election is an advantage he holds as Prime Minister over the Leader of the Opposition. If Brown feels June is best he will want the freedom to choose it.
On the 15 December the Sun’s political columnist and former political editor, Trevor Kavanagh, ran a story claiming that Brown could call a February general election. However, in an interview with the Daily Mirror today, Brown ruled out a February election. He said: "I want to get on with the work of getting the economy moving and making sure our health service, our schools and our policing is the best it can be." Asked if that meant ruling out an election in February or March, Brown said: "Yes. I am not interested in speculation about the election."
So if February is not on the cards, what about the 4 June – the same day as the local and European Parliamentary elections? This has to be considered a real possibility. Although the government is doing its best not to stoke speculation about an ‘early’ general election, weary of the trouble it got itself into in October 2007, in his interview with the Daily Mirror Gordon Brown could have ruled out a June 2009 election or even an election at all in 2009. He could even have announced the general election will be in May or June 2010. However, he is not going to rule out a June election next year because the ability to set the timing of a general election is an advantage he holds as Prime Minister over the Leader of the Opposition. If Brown feels June is best he will want the freedom to choose it.
Of course, the Conservatives will do their best to get him to rule it out by talking up the possibility of a 2009 election hoping that Brown will be unable to afford the damaging speculation and is then forced to rule it out so he can get on with the business of helping Britain weather the recession. Expect the Tories therefore to crank up the election rhetoric next year. The Conservative economic strategy is dependent on the long game and a 2010 general election would play into their hands if their economic gamble is to pay off. The Conservatives believe that the economy will get steadily worse and by 2010, far from the economy having moved out of recession, the economy will still be in a terrible state with unemployment touching 3 million. They believe Brown’s fiscal stimulus – particularly his 13 month VAT cut – will be shown to be a costly mistake and the electorate will have concluded by 2010 that the politics of “doing something” were not all they were cracked up to be. It is all very well being seen to be “doing something,” but more important ultimately is doing the right thing. In addition, if Brown waits until 2010 then the Conservatives can say he has held on to the bitter end (much like John Major did in 1997) hoping in vain that the economy and his political fortunes will be turned around. They can portray him as a desperate man who held on to the bitter end.
Paradoxically, Labour’s strategy, on the face of it, seems also to point to a 2010 election. The Chancellor predicted, in his Pre-Budget report, that the economy will begin to recover in the third quarter of 2009, with decent growth in 2010, and the economy back to normal pre-financial crisis growth levels in 2011. He has made a rod for his back by claiming that the government’s fiscal stimulus will be responsible for the recession being shorter and shallower than many other economists have predicted. The thinking for 2010 is that the public will be very grateful for the government’s economy saving measures and will duly reward them in a general election and punish the Conservatives as the “do nothing” party who would have made the recession worse had they been in power. Furthermore, if the government goes for 2010 they will avoid accusations that they are cutting and running, seeking to capitalise on improving poll ratings and having an election before the economy gets worse.
However, despite this, I believe that Brown will call an election in 2009. The 4 June is the likely date as it would take place on the same day as the local and European Parliamentary elections helping turnout, though Brown could of course go in April or May if he wished, as there is no reason why these months could not be chosen. Although the government has predicted that the economy will recover in the third quarter, this is very likely to prove too optimistic. If Brown waits until 2010, he could be in the dire position of an economy still in recession, or at least not showing tangible signs of recovery, high unemployment, a temporary fiscal stimulus that not only did not work, it cost £20 billion pounds adding to our already huge public debt and has expired. He would also have to face an election campaign in which the Tories will remind voters every day that they now will be hit by permanent tax rises to pay for Brown’s profligacy and economic mismanagement. This is how I see the political-economic situation playing out over the next 18 months and it will lead to a heavy defeat for Brown and a landslide victory for Cameron.
But if Brown goes to the polls in 2009, the situation is very different. It will be too early to categorically brand Brown’s fiscal stimulus as an expensive failure (though I’m sure the Tories will try), so Brown can make the general election campaign about a choice between his fiscal stimulus and his politics of doing something versus what he terms as the “do nothing” Conservative Party which is willing to stand aside while people suffer and let the recession take its course. This would be Brown’s preferred dividing line and he can only use it in a general election campaign if he goes early in 2009. In addition, the new US President, Barack Obama, will have been inaugurated and Brown will try and associate himself as much as possible with him hoping some of his electoral magic will rub off on him. Brown hopes to meet President Obama as early as February for bilateral talks and then again on 2 April in the G20 Economic Summit which Brown himself is hosting in London (another reason why February as an election date should be discounted). The Tories might have the Germans to point to in order to justify their economic policy, but Brown will be able to point to the new superstar of world politics to justify his economic approach. Expect Brown to constantly cite Obama’s fiscal stimulus as support for his own stimulus and he will also use it to portray the Conservatives as isolated in the world for opposing one. An additional reason for a June 2009 election is money – or lack of it. In many respects the Pre-Budget Report resembled a pre-election giveaway Budget. Many of the handouts were temporary and they all cost money that is unlikely to be available in 2010. It would make more sense for Brown to call an early general election in 2009, capitalise on any goodwill he may have received for the handouts and before the economy gets worse, he gets the blame and is subsequently defeated.
Of course if he goes early he will be exposing himself to attacks from his opponents that he is cutting and running and has no confidence in his own economic strategy as he is unwilling to see it through to 2010 and let voters judge whether it has worked or not. However, Brown can say that it is important that voters get the chance to endorse his economic strategy especially as the two main parties have policies that are diametrically opposed to each others. Although that argument would be more credible if the election was now, not next spring/summer.
Another complicating factor will of course be the opinion polls. Labour have narrowed the gap in the polls since September as voters have preferred Brown (and Darling) in a crisis to Cameron (and Osborne). However, although the Conservative’s double digit leads have been proven soft, the Conservatives have still retained a lead, albeit a single digit lead, in every single poll. ComRes have the Tories with only a one point lead though YouGov have the Tories with a seven point lead. Moreover, Cameron and Osborne still are favoured to run the economy and to take the country in the right direction after the next general election. There is also a strong sentiment that it is time for a change. Ordinarily Brown would want to have a lead in the polls ahead of a general election being called so he could be more confident of victory. The current polls point to a hung Parliament with most pointing to Labour having the majority of seats though with no outright majority. Brown is inherently a cautious politician and he could be tempted to hold out until 2010 if the polls do not point to outright victory. However, he has shown signs of being bolder recently. One only need look at the return of Peter Mandelson, for years Brown’s political enemy, for evidence of this. Brown may conclude if the polls are narrow that he could carve out a decisive lead during a general election campaign and he must size the moment rather than dithering and being far too timid as in October 2007. He may also conclude that even if defeat is likely it could be less damaging for the party to go in 2009 than wait until 2010 and face complete electoral annihilation, though I doubt this. He is more likely to believe that he would be able to turn it around by 2010. Complicating matters further are the betting and spread betting markets – both of which continue to point to a Conservative victory despite the narrowing of the opinion polls. The markets seem to have taken the view that the Brown bounce will erode as the economy further deteriorates which will strengthen the Tory position. Two final factors that Brown will consider when deciding when to call a general election are private internal polling and polling of marginal constituencies. It was the results of these that convinced Brown in October 2007 that a general election was too risky, especially as he had only been in the job he had coveted for at least 13 years for just four months.
Weighing up all the pros and cons I believe it would be in Brown’s interest to call an election for 4 June (or April or May) 2009. If he has a poll lead by then I think he will go for it. If he waits until 2010 there is a good chance he will be playing into the hands of the Tories. In any case, whenever the general election does take place, I would expect the campaign to be the nastiest ever. The two main parties have diametrically opposed policy positions and the parties are likely to clash in an increasingly vicious manner as the campaign progressed. To conpound matters, Gordon Brown and David Cameron do not get along at all. They do not like nor respect one another and this is likely to become particularly evident during an election campaign.
Paradoxically, Labour’s strategy, on the face of it, seems also to point to a 2010 election. The Chancellor predicted, in his Pre-Budget report, that the economy will begin to recover in the third quarter of 2009, with decent growth in 2010, and the economy back to normal pre-financial crisis growth levels in 2011. He has made a rod for his back by claiming that the government’s fiscal stimulus will be responsible for the recession being shorter and shallower than many other economists have predicted. The thinking for 2010 is that the public will be very grateful for the government’s economy saving measures and will duly reward them in a general election and punish the Conservatives as the “do nothing” party who would have made the recession worse had they been in power. Furthermore, if the government goes for 2010 they will avoid accusations that they are cutting and running, seeking to capitalise on improving poll ratings and having an election before the economy gets worse.
However, despite this, I believe that Brown will call an election in 2009. The 4 June is the likely date as it would take place on the same day as the local and European Parliamentary elections helping turnout, though Brown could of course go in April or May if he wished, as there is no reason why these months could not be chosen. Although the government has predicted that the economy will recover in the third quarter, this is very likely to prove too optimistic. If Brown waits until 2010, he could be in the dire position of an economy still in recession, or at least not showing tangible signs of recovery, high unemployment, a temporary fiscal stimulus that not only did not work, it cost £20 billion pounds adding to our already huge public debt and has expired. He would also have to face an election campaign in which the Tories will remind voters every day that they now will be hit by permanent tax rises to pay for Brown’s profligacy and economic mismanagement. This is how I see the political-economic situation playing out over the next 18 months and it will lead to a heavy defeat for Brown and a landslide victory for Cameron.
But if Brown goes to the polls in 2009, the situation is very different. It will be too early to categorically brand Brown’s fiscal stimulus as an expensive failure (though I’m sure the Tories will try), so Brown can make the general election campaign about a choice between his fiscal stimulus and his politics of doing something versus what he terms as the “do nothing” Conservative Party which is willing to stand aside while people suffer and let the recession take its course. This would be Brown’s preferred dividing line and he can only use it in a general election campaign if he goes early in 2009. In addition, the new US President, Barack Obama, will have been inaugurated and Brown will try and associate himself as much as possible with him hoping some of his electoral magic will rub off on him. Brown hopes to meet President Obama as early as February for bilateral talks and then again on 2 April in the G20 Economic Summit which Brown himself is hosting in London (another reason why February as an election date should be discounted). The Tories might have the Germans to point to in order to justify their economic policy, but Brown will be able to point to the new superstar of world politics to justify his economic approach. Expect Brown to constantly cite Obama’s fiscal stimulus as support for his own stimulus and he will also use it to portray the Conservatives as isolated in the world for opposing one. An additional reason for a June 2009 election is money – or lack of it. In many respects the Pre-Budget Report resembled a pre-election giveaway Budget. Many of the handouts were temporary and they all cost money that is unlikely to be available in 2010. It would make more sense for Brown to call an early general election in 2009, capitalise on any goodwill he may have received for the handouts and before the economy gets worse, he gets the blame and is subsequently defeated.
Of course if he goes early he will be exposing himself to attacks from his opponents that he is cutting and running and has no confidence in his own economic strategy as he is unwilling to see it through to 2010 and let voters judge whether it has worked or not. However, Brown can say that it is important that voters get the chance to endorse his economic strategy especially as the two main parties have policies that are diametrically opposed to each others. Although that argument would be more credible if the election was now, not next spring/summer.
Another complicating factor will of course be the opinion polls. Labour have narrowed the gap in the polls since September as voters have preferred Brown (and Darling) in a crisis to Cameron (and Osborne). However, although the Conservative’s double digit leads have been proven soft, the Conservatives have still retained a lead, albeit a single digit lead, in every single poll. ComRes have the Tories with only a one point lead though YouGov have the Tories with a seven point lead. Moreover, Cameron and Osborne still are favoured to run the economy and to take the country in the right direction after the next general election. There is also a strong sentiment that it is time for a change. Ordinarily Brown would want to have a lead in the polls ahead of a general election being called so he could be more confident of victory. The current polls point to a hung Parliament with most pointing to Labour having the majority of seats though with no outright majority. Brown is inherently a cautious politician and he could be tempted to hold out until 2010 if the polls do not point to outright victory. However, he has shown signs of being bolder recently. One only need look at the return of Peter Mandelson, for years Brown’s political enemy, for evidence of this. Brown may conclude if the polls are narrow that he could carve out a decisive lead during a general election campaign and he must size the moment rather than dithering and being far too timid as in October 2007. He may also conclude that even if defeat is likely it could be less damaging for the party to go in 2009 than wait until 2010 and face complete electoral annihilation, though I doubt this. He is more likely to believe that he would be able to turn it around by 2010. Complicating matters further are the betting and spread betting markets – both of which continue to point to a Conservative victory despite the narrowing of the opinion polls. The markets seem to have taken the view that the Brown bounce will erode as the economy further deteriorates which will strengthen the Tory position. Two final factors that Brown will consider when deciding when to call a general election are private internal polling and polling of marginal constituencies. It was the results of these that convinced Brown in October 2007 that a general election was too risky, especially as he had only been in the job he had coveted for at least 13 years for just four months.
Weighing up all the pros and cons I believe it would be in Brown’s interest to call an election for 4 June (or April or May) 2009. If he has a poll lead by then I think he will go for it. If he waits until 2010 there is a good chance he will be playing into the hands of the Tories. In any case, whenever the general election does take place, I would expect the campaign to be the nastiest ever. The two main parties have diametrically opposed policy positions and the parties are likely to clash in an increasingly vicious manner as the campaign progressed. To conpound matters, Gordon Brown and David Cameron do not get along at all. They do not like nor respect one another and this is likely to become particularly evident during an election campaign.
No comments:
Post a Comment