Following the very modest Liberal Democrat reshuffle yesterday, I’m sure it has not escaped your attention that the papers have been full of speculation about a Conservative reshuffle.
At the end of last year, Cameron, unlike Brown, did not do a major reshuffle other than a bit of tweaking due to the creation of new departments by the PM. This was primarily due to the fact that the Tory leader was waiting to see the outcome of the Caroline Spelman inquiry into whether she broke the rules by employing a nanny over 7 years ago funding it with her MPs expenses. It has been leaked that the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards, Sir John Lyon, will clear her, which seemingly means Cameron is free to go ahead with his own significant reshuffle, the last (baring any resignations) one would expect before the next general election.
Consequently, there has been speculation (Niall Paterson - Sky News) that the reshuffle could happen on Monday. This would coincide with the return of Parliament and also be the same day as Gordon Brown's much-trumpeted "jobs summit" - an event which could be somewhat overshadowed if the Tory leader fulfils the predictions of many and restores Ken Clarke to the Opposition front-bench.
However, there has been contrary speculation (Benedict Brogan – Daily Mail) that the reshuffle will not happen so soon because Team Cameron has let it be known that a reshuffle, if there is one, will not happen before the fate of Caroline Spelman has been officially decided by Sir John Lyon. If true, it is unclear whether this means when Sir John Lyon reports, or when the Privileges Committee reports on his finding (possibly as late as next month), or just when Sir John lets Spelman know. According to Brogan, the message from CCHQ is that a reshuffle “is not imminent."
Make of that what you will.
What I would say is that with all the feverish reshuffle speculation, Cameron will not want to let it go on for too long otherwise he may be accused of being indecisive – a criticism the Tories frequently level at Brown. Moreover, he needs to settle on his final general election team so they can get on with planning the Conservative’s election strategy over the coming months.
Consequently, there has been speculation (Niall Paterson - Sky News) that the reshuffle could happen on Monday. This would coincide with the return of Parliament and also be the same day as Gordon Brown's much-trumpeted "jobs summit" - an event which could be somewhat overshadowed if the Tory leader fulfils the predictions of many and restores Ken Clarke to the Opposition front-bench.
However, there has been contrary speculation (Benedict Brogan – Daily Mail) that the reshuffle will not happen so soon because Team Cameron has let it be known that a reshuffle, if there is one, will not happen before the fate of Caroline Spelman has been officially decided by Sir John Lyon. If true, it is unclear whether this means when Sir John Lyon reports, or when the Privileges Committee reports on his finding (possibly as late as next month), or just when Sir John lets Spelman know. According to Brogan, the message from CCHQ is that a reshuffle “is not imminent."
Make of that what you will.
What I would say is that with all the feverish reshuffle speculation, Cameron will not want to let it go on for too long otherwise he may be accused of being indecisive – a criticism the Tories frequently level at Brown. Moreover, he needs to settle on his final general election team so they can get on with planning the Conservative’s election strategy over the coming months.
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