Tuesday, 14 October 2008

Cruddas wanted Cabinet position


An extremely reliable source has informed me that Jon Cruddas rejected a return to government because Gordon Brown only offered him a junior ministerial position, that of Housing Minister.

There had been much speculation that Cruddas would join the government, especially due to his support on the Left of the Labour Party and that he came third in Labour's deputy leadership contest last year.

My source, a senior Labour figure, says Cruddas wanted a position within the Cabinet but Brown refused on the grounds that it was a step up too far. Therefore Cruddas refused the lesser position offered and spun the line that he was far too busy fighting the BNP to return to government.

My source said he felt Brown made a mistake in not bringing Cruddas back - and had told the PM so - but tipped Cruddas as a future Labour leader in the event that Labour suffers a landslide defeat at the next general election as the Labour Party would no doubt shift to the Left and would need to rebuild from scratch.

Friday, 10 October 2008

Should Lehman Brothers still be recruiting?


Er... didn't this global investment bank go bust the other week?

Not according to the jobs section of the Guardian!

Competitiveness Rankings: UK drops out of top 10

The World Economic Forum has published its annual report on global competitiveness.


The USA retains its top spot but the UK has dropped out of the top 10 and is now ranked 12th most competitive country in the world - a fall of three places from last year.

The report says: "The United Kingdom, while remaining very competitive, has dropped by three places and out of the top 10, mainly attributable to a weakening of its financial markets."
Look on the bright side, at least we're still ahead of France who are ranked 16th...

Savings safer in Botswana!

According to the World Economic Forum your savings would be safer in places like Botswana, Namibia, Chile, Brazil, Senegal, Peru or El Salvador than in UK banks.
You couldn't make this shit up...
P.S. Safest country is apparently Canada

Thursday, 9 October 2008

Tory MP gravely ill

I've heard that a Conservative MP is gravely ill.

Sad news.

Not sure who the MP is but it could mean another by-election this Parliament.

42 days is dead


I've just heard that a government whip has let it be known that 42 days is dead. The spin being that the government is only focused on the financial crisis and will not let anything else distract the government from its central mission.

This fits with Nick Robinson's post the other day. The BBC political editor said that the PM has been told that he faces a heavy defeat in the Lords (possibly on Monday) and that it would be political suicide to invoke the Parliament Act. Robinson also wrote: "A clear sign that the game's up came in the reshuffle when two of the ministers most closely involved were moved -Tony McNulty's left the home office to go to DWP and Baroness Ashton is leaving the Lords front bench to replace Peter Mandelson in Brussels. "

It is interesting to see how the government is going to spin its humiliating retreat - PM still believes in 42 days detention without charge but the focus is on the economy.

I'm sorry, this is absolute bullsh*t! Brown has argued that 42 days is vital in our fight against terrorism. I disagree with him but let's take him at his word for the moment. If it's so vital, why is he prepared to let it drop? As for the focus on the economy, can our government not multi-task? What is more important than the security of the British people?

The truth is that Brown knows he can't get the legislation through the Lords and does not have the political authority to use the Parliament Act. The "focusing on the economy" line is a load of crap.

I'm looking forward to the Lords giving Brown and the Labour government a bloody nose on this issue... they deserve it!!!



Wednesday, 8 October 2008

Will the cut in interest rates help?


The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) took the decision today, in concert with other central banks around the world, to cut interest rates by 0.5 percent.

But will it help? I'm not convinced...

1) It is only 0.5 percent. Sure, it's the biggest single cut by the MPC since 9/11 but people have been calling for cuts in the region of 1-2 percent

2) The famous economist John Maynard Keynes once said that cutting interest rates during a financial crisis is like trying to push against a piece of string. The old boy wouldn't think it will work.

3) Japan - 10 years of stagnation - the 'Lost Decade' - wasn't helped by 0 percent interest rates.

Nevertheless, I feel the cut should be welcomed.

For those struggling to make ends meet, cuts in their mortgage repayments (assuming the interest rate cuts fee through to us average Joes) will be very welcome.

In terms of savings, normally banks would reduce the savings interest rates they offer but this time it might be different as they need our money like never before so rates may still stay 'high'.

Finally, even if it does not help the economy begin to recover it is unlikely to hurt, so long as - and this is the big 'if' - inflation, already far too high, does not get out of control as a result of this move. The gamble being taken is that with the slowdown affecting the consumption of oil and commodities, inflation will begin to fall and in any case helping stimulate the economy by getting cheaper lending rates is being seen as the more important objective.

PMQs - Bipartisan boredom


A expected, PMQs was a dull, bipartisan affair.

Both Cameron and Clegg slavishly supported Brown meaning he received no serious questioning about the government's financial rescue package. The key question that should have been asked, but wasn't, was how is the government funding its multi-billion pound bail-out. The answer is probably yet more government borrowing but the two opposition parties did not hold the government to account on this vital issue just because they wanted to keep up the pretence of bipartisan support.

Cameron was particularly poor today. He seemed to be asking questions that had been fed to him beforehand by the Prime Minister. After almost every question from Dave, Brown would respond by saying he was grateful for the question.

Message to Dave: Gordon Brown should not be grateful for your questions!

Cameron also tried to sound all left-wing and populist by attacking the bonus culture in the City. This got him many jeers from the Labour benches and a put-down from the PM who reminded the House of Cameron's claim to Andrew Marr that he wouldn't use "cheap jibes" which would undermine cooperation and the markets. Brown ruined the bipartisan unity a bit right at the end but he didn't care because Cameron had no more questions to respond and he was being cheered by his Labour MPs who were very happy with his robust performance (for a change!). Labour seems to be quite enjoying this financial crisis - it has put their man back in the game.

Clegg did a better job. He offered his full support to Brown but began with a nice Titanic joke. He said that when the ship was sinking you do not argue about who has steered it into an iceberg. This was better than Cameron because the clear implication was that Captain Brown has got us into this mess but still allowed Clegg to look bipartisan.

However, there is a flaw in the 'united' approach taken by the Tories and Lib Dems. They seem to think that by not opposing Brown's plan in any way, they 1) Look good - the public likes politicians working together for the good of the country; and 2) If the plan goes belly up in the months to come everybody will attack Brown - after all, it is his plan.
But i've got news for Cameron and Clegg - you'll be blamed too because you have tied your colours to Brown's mast. Your support now means you have foregone your right to criticise in the future without looking ridiculous.

RATINGS:

Brown - 7; Clegg - 7; Cameron - 5

PMQs - Brown condemns excessive risk taking

Er... does excessive risk taking include spending money a country does not have; living beyond a country's means; and borrowing so much money that the country's public deficit now stands at over £600 billion and rising?
Gordon Brown has been guilty of profligate borrowing and spending during the boom years, saving no money for a rainy day because he hubristically thought he had conquered 'boom and bust'.
Brown seems to be benefiting from the financial crisis at the moment but if there is any justice in the world he will rightly be In the Brown before the next general election...

PMQs - Difficult one for Cameron

Not long now until PMQs - the first one since the long Summer Recess.

It's a difficult one for Cameron what with the tonal shift he had to perform at his conference and since due to the worsening financial crisis.

Ordinarily i'm sure he would have liked to hit the PM hard, ridiculing the lack of unity in the Labour Party and the perililous state of the public finances (made worse as the government seems intent on nationalising everything - Michael Foot i'm sure is very proud).

However, Cameron is likely to continue in the spirit of bipartisanship while just asking questions about the implementation of today's rescue package.

I've got to admit i'm not too comfortable with all this 'bipartisanship'. It allows Brown off the hook and enables him to act all authoritative and statesmanlike as if none of this crisis is his fault whatsoever, in the process strengthening Brown's position within his party and in the country at large. I know it's important to judge the mood correctly but Cameron needs to stop the media narrative changing in Brown's favour.

The sooner this false bipartisanship ends, the better!!!

Mandy's return is political

Gordon Brown claims he has recalled Peter Mandelson from his position as the EU Trade Commissioner to take up the position of Business Secretary because in these difficult economic times the UK needs experienced people in government and Mandelson has experience in abundance as he was also a former Secretary of State for Trade and Industry. The government spin is that Mandelson is back simply because of economics.

However, his appointment should be seen in political terms. Brown has brought his enemy back because it has allowed him to do several things:
  • First, Brown is correctly seen as a factional politician who holds grudges against his enemies. This appointment allows Brown to play against type as an inclusive leader who puts the country first.
  • Second, it is a defensive and slightly desperate move as Brown is trying to shore up his position in the Labour Party. Brown realises that one fairly decent conference speech is not enough to keep at bay the Blairites within his party and government who have been undermining his authority by briefing the media. By bringing back the arch-Blairite it sends out a message to the plotters that he is willing to compromise. It is undoubtedly defensive because a strong Brown would have preferred to banish Mandelson to the Falkland Islands rather than make him a peer and a powerful Cabinet minister.
  • Third, it helps a disunited Labour Party look united. He can say he has a Cabinet of Blairites and Brownites which will work together in harmony. The people that founded New Labour - Brown, Blair (who is in regular contact with him), Mandelson and Alastair Campbell - are also said to have put aside their differences to work together again to help Labour cling on to power.
  • Fourth, it provides Brown with cover. Bringing the Blairite Mandelson into government has allowed Brown to promote his cronies. Thus, those responsible for the "balti house plot" to oust Tony Blair in September 2006 which Brown claimed he knew nothing about have been promoted. Step forward Chris Bryant (Deputy Commons Leader), Sion Simon (Skills Minister), Kevan Jones (Defence Minister), Wayne David (Wales Office), Tom Watson (Cabinet Minister) and Huw Irranca-Davies (Defra). With the exception of Kevan Jones, the only meagre talent the others have is loyalty to Brown. One of the biggest rewards though goes to Nick Brown who has been promoted to Chief Whip. Brown would not have been able to get away with this had he not have had the cover of his Mandelson appointment because Nick Brown was seen as pivotal in helping force Blair out and is fiercely loyal to Brown.
  • Fifth, and finally, Brown is attempting to drive home his current political message against David Cameron – that “this is no time for a novice.” Mandelson (and Margaret Beckett) are old hands and old faces which add some gravitas to what was quite a young Cabinet.

Mandelson's return is a shrewd political move but it is also defensive, desperate and not without its risks. Mandelson is an incredibly divisive and polarising figure in the Labour Party. Mandelson has a reputation for playing fast and loose with truth and honesty. The fact that he has had to resign twice from Cabinet positions means he has shown questionable judgement at times. Mandelson has an incredibly high media profile which means his every word will be scrutinised – Mandelson has a long track record of briefing against Brown – and any lapses of judgement will be seized upon. Brown is taking a huge gamble by bringing him back. Mandelson will be the only person in a Cabinet of pygmies who can stand up to Brown. Given the history of bad blood between the two, Brown will find it very difficult to deal with a dissenting Mandelson. But Brown has given himself the problem of appointing an almost unsackable Cabinet minister. If their relationship broke down again Brown would be in big trouble. As Fraser Nelson has noted: "... Peter Mandelson, a world-class plotter and intriguer. He put the skills to great effect in Europe, and it's an incredibly bold move by Gordon Brown to appoint him into his Cabinet because if things get pretty tough for Brown six months down the road, say if he loses this Glenrothes by-election, people will immediately look to Peter Mandelson to be the man who organises any kind of plot or coup."

Bringing Mandelson back is a very risky, some would say reckless, move from a Prime Minister known for his innate cautiousness.

Tuesday, 7 October 2008

Is Vince Cable losing his touch?


Mostly since Vince Cable, Lib Dem Treasury spokesman, successfully stood in as a temporary leader last year, the old twinkle toes ballroom dancer has been fawned over by the media - so much so that you see him on TV more than his supposed leader Nick Clegg! He also made much of the fact that he had called for Northern Rock to be nationalised 5-6 months before our dithering Labour government decided to just that (whether nationalisation was a good decision is another thing entirely!).

However, it looks like recently he is losing his touch.

Guido has recently been highlighting the slippage of Cable's 'crown' arguing he is overly populist, has been guilty of flip-flopping over bipartisan support, and was overrated in the first place.

And Iain Dale has posted today about how recently Cable had been arguing that the independence of the Bank of England should be respected only for him to change his position on Sunday with a call for interest rates to be cut by 2 whole percent!

This is a serious point. Politicians cannot champion Bank of England independence one minute then try and exert political pressure on the Bank the next when the going gets tough. Cable is once again being populist because he knows his remarks will, and have, generated media coverage. To be fair to Cable he does not want monetary policy back under direct political control. Instead he has argued for the Bank's remit to be broadened from just focusing on keeping a check on inflation to the wider well-being of the economy including its growth.

But the Bank's primary focus should be on inflation. We have all got used to low inflation as a result of cheap goods from China but that does not mean inflation is just an evil relegated to history. Politicians like Cable seem to have rather short memories. And he's an old guy so he should remember the devastation caused by inflation in the 1970s!!!

Moreover, as we have seen with Japan which saw stagnation for 10 years in the 1990s - the 'Lost Decade' - even interest rates set at 0% cannot always rescue an economy.

In short, the Bank should continue to focus on bringing inflation under control (it is well above its 2% target) and politicians like Cable should know better and avoid playing opportunistic, populist games!

Recount and the hanging chads


I watched Recount with Kevin Spacey last night (I had taped it off More 4 the other night).

It was a pretty good HBO film/dramatisation about the 2000 Presidential Election which all hinged on the 25 Electoral College votes from the state of Florida. It was filmed mostly from the Democrats perspective and of course delt with their attempts to force a manual recount. You remember, all that stuff about hanging and dimple chads.

It made some good points about how the state had disenfranchised voters which is of course outrageous but on the issue of the 'chads' my views still haven't changed from 8 years ago. As the Republicans argued, the voting procedure clearly stated that a hole must be punched right through. The Democrats had argued that intent was more important than following the rules.

But i'm sorry, if you are such a moron that you can't follow the rules so get confused by the ballot paper, and can't punch a simple hole in a piece of card, you don't deserve your vote!!!

Friday, 3 October 2008

Will Europe like Brown recalling Mandelson?

Interesting one this. Mandelson was very pro-trade and pro-free market. Accordingly he polarised opinion within the EU. The protective instinct of the French and their President Sarkozy meant Mandelson was their Public Enemy No. 1. They won't miss him - other than losing a figurehead to vent their anger at.
However, when countries put forward Commissioners for the EU Commission, they are supposed to do so in the interest of the EU, not their own nation state. Thus, once appointed the EU Commissioner operates in the EU, rather than national, interest.
The reason I raise this is that Michael Crick has just done so in the PM's press conference that has just taken place. The PM had argued that Mandelson had been brought back into government because of his huge experience in business and interenational trade etc, vital at such a difficult economic time. Crick then said to the PM that he would have a lot of explaining to do to his EU partners about why he had recalled Mandelson if his experience was as important as the PM was saying - surely it would be better for the EU as a whole if Mandelson's talents were utilised as a Commissioner, not selfishly by the UK government? [Not Crick's words, but that was the gist].
To which Brown replied saying it was right for British interest...
Not a very good European, Mr Brown (though me knew this already). This will further disappoint the Europhiles...

Brown: Watch your back!

Fraser Nelson has made a good point about Mandelson's return to government, saying it's a brave move by Brown:

"... Peter Mandleson, a world-class plotter and intriguer. He put the skills to great effect in Europe, and it's an incredibly bold move by Gordon Brown to appoint him into his Cabinet because if things get pretty tough for Brown six months down the road, say if he loses this Glenrothes by-election, people will immediately look to Peter Mandelson to be the man who organises any kind of plot or coup."
Watch your back Brown...

What does Benedict Brogan know that we don't?

Brogan has posted about the 'forced' departure today of Brown's chief spin doctor - Damian McBride
He began with: "When the Day of Reckoning comes and those of us who know are free to say what we know, Damian McBride will emerge with great credit from the madness of the past few years."
And finished with: "But I'm certain of this: you will read a lot in the coming days about Damian McBride, and you shouldn't believe more than a fraction of it. The true story is far better."
Come on Brogan, tell us the real story then!

Mandelson back in the Cabinet


Amazing! The enemy of Brown has just been brought back into the tent! No official news about what job he'll get, but looks likely that he'll be made a peer and then become Secretary of State for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform. Mandelson has formerly been Secretary of State for Trade and Industry.

Looks like Brown is trying to send out the message that he runs a united team of Blairites and Brownites and that he has appointed someone with international experience - given his current role as EU trade commissioner.

I can imagine the Tories having fun with this. Mandelson has been forced to resign twice from Cabinet during the Blair years and there are many anti-Brown quotes from Mandelson over the years.

This move would mean John Hutton will have to be moved - looks like defence - and also looks like the Unions have got something for all their money! They absolutely detest Hutton calling him the 'CBI's man in government'.

Also means Brown needs a new Commissioner - Geoff Hoon? Would Brown be bold enough to move his Chief Whip and appoint his deputy, Nick Brown, in his place - that would upset the Blairites given his role in forcing Blair out!


UPDATE:
  • Mandelson will become Secretary of State for BER.
  • John Hutton becomes new Defence Secretary
  • Hoon is likely to become new EU Commissioner but not for another year. Will stay in the Cabinet in some capacity for the time being.
  • Des Browne may become Secretary of State for the Nations.

Derek Draper has just said that the Tories will be really worried now Mandelson has come back in government. Hahahahahaha. Draper is a comedian!
UPDATE 2:
  • Geoff Hoon to be Transport Secretary
  • Nick Brown to become Chief Whip - a lot of crap about 'balance' coming from the spin doctors.
  • Margaret Beckett - you remember, that outstanding former Foreign Secretary - is rumoured to be returning to government.
Looks like Brown is trying to ram home the experience vs novice point. I'd expect Cameron now to follow suit and bring back Malcolm Rifkind and Ken Clarke to give his own Shadow Cabinet a couple of its own experienced heavyweights...

UPDATE 3:

  • Hillary Benn looks set to stay in his job at DEFRA.
  • Des Browne to return to backbenches
  • Sir John Bond to become 'Business Ambassador' - window dressing this. As Matthew Paris has just said, government can get advice from whomever it wants.
  • Damian McBride - Brown's spin doctor - is to take a more backroom role. He has been blamed for briefing against Cabinet Ministers. He's quite a diversive figure known as Damian 'McPoison'!

UPDATE 4:
  • New Department for Energy and Climate to be formed - to avoid conflicts of interest between securing energy supply and fighting climate change.

UPDATE 5:

  • Plans for a possible merger of the Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish departments to create a "ministry of the nations" have been put on hold, according to BBC's James Landale.
  • Beckett to be a "Cabinet Enforcer"
  • Ed Miliband to head up new Dept of Energy and Climate Change.

Thinking about the reshuffle, it seems to me that another message from it is that it is supposed to show government unity. Brown hopes that having a Cabinet that represents all wings of the party will help unify the party behind his leadership. This looks as a direct response to Cameron's repeated claims in his Conference speech that only he led a united party. Interesting to see whether this fragile unity will hold.

Still think the main message is that of 'experience'. Cameron will have to rise to the challenge and bring some big beasts of his own into his Shadow Cabinet. Alternatively, he needs to brand the reshuffle a desperate move bringing tired, has-been politicians back. Can't see the Daily Mail liking the fact that Mandelson, the Prince of Darkness, has been brought back... that should help Cameron. And some Labour backbenchers do not appear that happy with Mandelson's return either. Backbench Labour MP John McDonnell has said the Labour movement will be "perplexed" by the shock move and regard it as "extraordinary step backwards" for the party.

Thursday, 2 October 2008

So much for standing by your man...

Just watching BBC's Question Time and Jacqui Smith has been going on about how bad Boris Johnson has been by politicising the police after forcing out Sir Ian Blair.
However, Lord (Michael) Heseltine made a good point in reply by saying if she really thought Boris was being partisan in the lowest political sense then why had she not stood by her man properly and refused to accept Blair's resignation? If Boris had behaved so badly, why had she not stood up to him?

Sir Ian Blair: Blogosphere abuzz with rumours of his resignation


Iain Dale and the Spectator's Coffee House have just blogged that they have heard Sir Ian Blair is to resign at 4pm today.
The Metropolitan Police Commissioner has been on the receiving end of much criticism during his tenure, particularly over his political links to New Labour and the death of Charles de Menezes at Stockwell tube among other issues. It has also been reported that Boris Johnson wanted Sir Ian replaced.
And today, the Daily Mail, which has long called for his removal, featured a story on its front page that Sir Ian had used public money to pay a close friend a five-figure sum to sharpen his image, without putting the job out to tender first.
I would be surprised if this story on its own would cause a resignation but it could prove to be a tipping point - Sir Ian deciding to call an end to controversial tenure under the weight of all the abuse. That, or the Home Secretary could have called time herself.
UPDATE: Sir Ian Blair has resigned after losing the confidence of Boris Johnson, Conservative Mayor of London. Jacqui Smith, the Labour Home Secretary, has said she reluctantly accepted his resignation. The Home Secretary has the power to appoint and sack the Metropolitan Police Commissioner, not the Mayor of London - yet Boris has still got his way. This means whoever Smith appoints as Blair's replacement will also have to have the support of the Tory Mayor. Bet Labour love this...

Wednesday, 1 October 2008

Cameron's speech - Nulifies PM's novice attack


David Cameron closed the Conservative Party Conference – much overshadowed by the economic crisis befalling the world – with a passionate, substantial speech, devoid of flashy gimmicks that addressed the anxieties people have about the economy but also – in what was a surprise to commentators – also addressed a series of wide-ranging issues which he linked around the themes of his speech – responsibility, change, small government, values, character and judgement. It had been thought that Cameron would have drastically re-written his speech to take into account the gravity of the economic crisis otherwise he would have been criticised for being out of touch. Instead, he seemed to have kept much of his original content in place but with added passages about the economy, however, it is likely he did tone down his speech, limiting the jokes, and keeping the anti-Brown/Labour comments to a minimum.

Cameron faced a difficult balancing act with his speech – how much time should he spend addressing the economy at the expense of other issues – but probably felt that with his emergency statement yesterday, he did not want to overdo the economy. Had he done so he would no doubt have been criticised for having given a one-dimensional Shadow Chancellor’s speech. As it was, he adopted the right serious, Prime Ministerial tone, reiterating many of the points he had made yesterday about the economy and giving a critique of the Labour years, but also talked about other issues which he considers key such as social breakdown. He used talk of people’s anxieties to nicely link to other themes such as Britain being at war in Iraq and Afghanistan. The Conservatives have always been the party of the military but the fact that Cameron chose to talk about the armed forces so early was no doubt meant as a riposte to Brown who only mentioned them as an afterthought at the end of his speech last week which those on the Right thought was disgraceful.

Much of the speech was in a measured tone with Cameron speaking with notes behind a lectern (rather than autocue, from memory, or TV screens a la Nick Clegg) to convey a more serious and statesmanlike image. However, at times Cameron became quite passionate especially when conveying stories about his constituents – particularly one about a small businessman who had lost his business and a man’s wife who had died without dignity from MRSA caught in hospital – and while he began his speech in sombre tones, he finished with a passionate, rousing and uplifting vision about Britain overcoming obstacles to reach better times ahead. Performance wise, Cameron has many of the gifts of Blair and Bill Clinton. At times he seemed to ad-lib, departing from his script so that he could speak direct to the audience without looking down at his notes. Whether genuine or rehearsed, it nonetheless made Cameron look more informal and his message heartfelt.

He talked about his passions and beliefs and the speech was designed to be a very personal – about him the man. He used it as a clever device, considering the political climate, to indirectly criticise Brown and Labour, subtly contrasting his opponents with himself without mentioning them. For example, he said: “I believe in building a strong team - and really trusting them. Their success is to be celebrated - not seen as some kind of threat. Thinking before deciding is good. Not deciding because you don't like the consequences of a decision is bad. Trust your principles, your judgment and your colleagues.” Here he was talking about himself but subtly he was clearly attacking Brown as a control freak who hoards power, does not delegate or trust his Cabinet colleagues, sees strong performances from his colleagues as threats to his leadership, and dithers over decisions because he is fearful of the consequences (here read: Northern Rock).

Cameron also took head-on the Prime Minister’s claim that this was “no time for a novice” making a powerful argument for change and deflating Brown’s ‘experience’ argument in what was perhaps the best part of Cameron’s speech. He said character and judgement were more important than experience. He said people wanted to know about his values and character, how he made decisions and how he operated. He said his values were conservative, not libertarian, and that the most important word for him was ‘responsibility’: “Personal responsibility. Professional responsibility. Civic responsibility. Corporate responsibility. Our responsibility to our family, to our neighbourhood, our country. Our responsibility to behave in a decent and civilised way. To help others. That is what this Party is all about.” Cameron said before he makes a decision he asks whether it will encourage or discourage responsibility. Cameron has talked about responsibility in his speeches before but it had added resonance after Brown had talked about the “age of irresponsibility” which the Conservatives say sums up Brown’s 11 years in power. Cameron said he could not prove he was ready to be PM – to say he was ready would be arrogant – the best he could do was to say who he is. He said his family was most important to him, that he was very patriotic, and that he was passionate about the Union. In a shot across the bows of Alex Salmond, he said he wanted to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, not of England. Cameron said the long-term was important and that if elected tough decisions would have to be made which he was ready for.

He then moved on to addressing the experience issue directly:

“What matters more than experience is character and judgment, and what you really believe needs to happen to make things right. I believe that to rebuild our economy, it's not more of the same we need, but change. To repair our broken society, it's not more of the same we need, but change. Experience is the excuse of the incumbent over the ages. Experience is what they always say when they try to stop change.”

These were some of his best lines as he linked the issue of experience with more of the same from tired governments which fear making the changes necessary because admitting change is needed would mean they would have to admit they were wrong. Cameron then gave an example of experience not being all its cracked up to be which was well received in the Conference hall:

“In 1979, James Callaghan had been Home Secretary, Foreign Secretary and Chancellor before he became Prime Minister. He had plenty of experience. But thank god we changed him for Margaret Thatcher.”

And then made a joke at Brown’s expense:

“Just think about it: if we listened to this argument about experience, we'd never change a government, ever. We'd have Gordon Brown as Prime Minister - for ever. I won’t go on; there are people up there in balconies…”

Cameron then shifted focus to what the country has received from the Gordon Brown experience during the past 11 years:

“Gordon Brown talks about his economic experience. The problem is, we have actually experienced his experience. We've experienced the massive increase in debt. We have experienced the huge rise in taxes. We experienced the folly of pretending that boom and bust could be ended.”

Finally, Cameron argued that the country did not need Brown’s experience; what it needed was real change:

“The risk is not in making a change. The risk is sticking with what you've got and expecting a different result. There is a simple truth for times like this. When you've taken the wrong road, you don't just keep going. You change direction - and that is what we need to do.”

It is a gamble by Cameron but he obviously believes that ultimately change will trump experience at the next general election.

Cameron then returned to the issue of the economy outlining what he saw as being at the heart of the financial crisis. He sad the ‘tap’ marked borrowing had been turned on and left on for far too long and that governments on both sides of the Atlantic had been guilty of believing the good times would go on forever. He also criticised bankers but reiterated his measured appeal that now was not the time to turn against them with left-wing zeal. Their time would come down the line, he said.

Cameron said Brown had made two bad decisions. 1) He had taken away the Bank of England’s powers to call time on debt back in 1997. 2) Government borrowing had got out of control after Brown became a spendaholic leaving the cupboard bare.

He said he believed in sound money and low taxes. Portraying the Conservatives as the party of prudence and economic stability, Cameron said he would restore the Bank of England’s powers removed by Brown, as well as financial responsibility and fiscal responsibility. He hinted at cuts in public spending saying he had asked all his Shadow Cabinet members to review every spending programme they had committed to and said big savings would be made from reforming the public services and that the Tories would establish an Office of Budget Responsibility so there could be no hiding place for governments and no fiddling of the figures.

In a dig at Brown, Cameron said he understood enterprise and that people created jobs, not governments. Brown, in his speech, said his government had created three million jobs. Even Brown has not made that many in the public sector and certainly has not made any in the private sector. Cameron said that Labour’s taxes and regulations had hurt business and that the Conservatives would cut corporation tax by 3p.

Leaving behind the economy for a second time, Cameron said he did not only want to be judged just by how he handled crises, but on two things: 1) the NHS and 2) “the long-term mission of the next Conservative government: to repair our broken society.”

He attacked Labour over their support for big government and signalled out David Miliband for particular criticism. Cameron said that in difficult times, Labour always argues for a bigger state. He said Miliband had been very arrogant for saying last week that unless government is on your side, you are on your own. He said for Labour there was just the state and the individual – nothing in between like families, faith groups etc. In a clever line, he said as far as Labour was concerned there was no such thing as society – clever because Labour has for years thrown this line at the Conservatives after it was first used by Margaret Thatcher.

Cameron said that the problem was not leadership (Brown or anybody else) in Labour; it was Labour. He accused the governing party of treating people like children; never trusting them.

Cameron said politics needed to be cleaned up. He said it was not a party issue but a Westminster one. He said he had shown leadership by standing up to vested interests, namely his MPs and MEPs over expenses. He then linked to another reason for the destruction of faith in politics, that is, when manifesto commitments are not honoured. This allowed him to throw some red meat to the party faithful by saying Conservatives will campaign in the European elections for a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty.

Cameron moved onto the NHS claiming Labour had blown its chance and proclaimed: “We are now the party of the NHS and that is the way it’s going to stay.” Labour will not like that one bit.

Returning to his theme of change, he said he would be as radical in social reform as Thatcher had been in economic reform and pledged this is how the Conservatives would fix the ‘Broken Society’. There has been some talk recently that Cameron had been pulling back from his ‘Broken Society’ assessment of the country, qualifying it, but he displaced any such notions in his speech saying those who disputed society was broken must be living in another world.

The Tory leader then sought to show his progressive credentials. He said society could be repaired but traditional approaches had only ever addressed symptoms not causes. He said the Tories were not an anti-state party. In the 20th Century state interventions had done much good. However, in the 21st century, there were diminishing returns to state interventions because they did not address the underlying causes of problems. He called the ‘family’ the “best welfare system there is” and the “first line of defence against social breakdown.” He said strengthening schools was the second line of defence and welfare reform the third. He said working together with Iain Duncan Smith, the former Conservative leader, the Tories had become the party for “social justice.” Again Labour would not like this claim. He then repeated his claim that the Conservatives were the true progressives and that Conservative means would deliver progressive ends such as ending child poverty. By this point I expect Labour supporters would have become apoplectic with rage with Cameron driving his ‘tanks’ on to areas they consider their own.

One key message of Cameron’s speech was that he was leading a united party unlike Brown. He even began his speech with a light-hearted joke that they were in the Symphony Hall in Birmingham and that it was good to know everyone in his party was playing the same tune – the clear implication being that this is not the case in the disunited Labour Party. Presentationally the message was rammed home with the entire Cabinet positioned behind Cameron on the stage. The TV cameras showed Cameron flanked by his top two – Hague and Osborne. He returned to this theme several times, especially at the end of his speech, declaring that his party was a “changed party. A united party.” Cameron said the Conservatives were “united in spirit and purpose.”

He acknowledged that the task for his party was to take people with them saying his plan for change involved rebuilding the battered economy, renewing the bureaucratised NHS and repairing Britain’s broken society. However, Cameron was keen not to raise expectations too high saying these were “difficult times” with “no overnight transformations.” He said he was “a man with a plan, not a miracle cure.”

Cameron then brought his speech to a rousing, passionate end by offering an optimistic appraisal of the future and saying only the character, leadership and judgement that the Conservative Party offers (in other words what he offers and Brown does not) could deliver the change the country needs:

“These difficult times need leadership, yes. They need character and judgment. The leadership to unite your party and build a strong team. The character to stick to your guns and not bottle it when times get tough. The judgment to understand the mistakes that have been made and to offer the country change. Leadership, character, judgment. That's what Britain needs at a time like this and that's what this party now offers. I know we are living in difficult times but I am still optimistic because I have faith in human nature… In our remarkable capacity to innovate, to experiment, to overcome obstacles and to find a way through difficulties… whether those problems are created by man or nature. We can and will come through. We always do. Not because of our government. But because of the people of Britain. Because of what you do - because of the work you do, the families you raise, the jobs you create… because of your attitude, your confidence and your determination. So because we are united… Because we have had the courage to change… Because we have the fresh answers to the challenges of our age. I believe we now have the opportunity, and more than that the responsibility, to bring our country together. Together in the face of this financial crisis. Together in determination that we will come through it. Together in the hope, the belief that better times will lie ahead.”

All-in-all, the speech was very good. It received rapturous applause as one would expect. He adopted the right Prime Ministerial tone for these austere times but refused to allow it to limit the scope of his speech and finished on an optimistic, uplifting note that was designed to offer the country hope and show he was the man to deliver much needed change. It might be criticised for not offering anything new in terms of policy pledges but Cameron sought instead to offer a detailed critique of the past 11 years, show the direction the Conservatives would take and their priorities for office, and importantly, to show himself as a Prime Minister-in-waiting who might not have the experience but has the values, character and judgement which is what matters which matters most. It was astonishing that the speech was 10 minutes longer than Brown’s yet felt so much shorter. Whereas Brown’s badly began to flag two-thirds of the way through losing structure and the audience’s attention, Cameron, like Blair used to do, was able to keep his voice and words interesting – a key advantage Cameron holds over Brown.