Tuesday, 14 October 2008
Cruddas wanted Cabinet position
Friday, 10 October 2008
Should Lehman Brothers still be recruiting?


Competitiveness Rankings: UK drops out of top 10

Savings safer in Botswana!
Thursday, 9 October 2008
Tory MP gravely ill
Sad news.
Not sure who the MP is but it could mean another by-election this Parliament.
42 days is dead

Wednesday, 8 October 2008
Will the cut in interest rates help?

PMQs - Bipartisan boredom

A expected, PMQs was a dull, bipartisan affair.
Both Cameron and Clegg slavishly supported Brown meaning he received no serious questioning about the government's financial rescue package. The key question that should have been asked, but wasn't, was how is the government funding its multi-billion pound bail-out. The answer is probably yet more government borrowing but the two opposition parties did not hold the government to account on this vital issue just because they wanted to keep up the pretence of bipartisan support.
Cameron was particularly poor today. He seemed to be asking questions that had been fed to him beforehand by the Prime Minister. After almost every question from Dave, Brown would respond by saying he was grateful for the question.
Message to Dave: Gordon Brown should not be grateful for your questions!
Cameron also tried to sound all left-wing and populist by attacking the bonus culture in the City. This got him many jeers from the Labour benches and a put-down from the PM who reminded the House of Cameron's claim to Andrew Marr that he wouldn't use "cheap jibes" which would undermine cooperation and the markets. Brown ruined the bipartisan unity a bit right at the end but he didn't care because Cameron had no more questions to respond and he was being cheered by his Labour MPs who were very happy with his robust performance (for a change!). Labour seems to be quite enjoying this financial crisis - it has put their man back in the game.
Clegg did a better job. He offered his full support to Brown but began with a nice Titanic joke. He said that when the ship was sinking you do not argue about who has steered it into an iceberg. This was better than Cameron because the clear implication was that Captain Brown has got us into this mess but still allowed Clegg to look bipartisan.
However, there is a flaw in the 'united' approach taken by the Tories and Lib Dems. They seem to think that by not opposing Brown's plan in any way, they 1) Look good - the public likes politicians working together for the good of the country; and 2) If the plan goes belly up in the months to come everybody will attack Brown - after all, it is his plan. But i've got news for Cameron and Clegg - you'll be blamed too because you have tied your colours to Brown's mast. Your support now means you have foregone your right to criticise in the future without looking ridiculous.
RATINGS:
Brown - 7; Clegg - 7; Cameron - 5
PMQs - Brown condemns excessive risk taking
PMQs - Difficult one for Cameron
It's a difficult one for Cameron what with the tonal shift he had to perform at his conference and since due to the worsening financial crisis.
Ordinarily i'm sure he would have liked to hit the PM hard, ridiculing the lack of unity in the Labour Party and the perililous state of the public finances (made worse as the government seems intent on nationalising everything - Michael Foot i'm sure is very proud).
However, Cameron is likely to continue in the spirit of bipartisanship while just asking questions about the implementation of today's rescue package.
I've got to admit i'm not too comfortable with all this 'bipartisanship'. It allows Brown off the hook and enables him to act all authoritative and statesmanlike as if none of this crisis is his fault whatsoever, in the process strengthening Brown's position within his party and in the country at large. I know it's important to judge the mood correctly but Cameron needs to stop the media narrative changing in Brown's favour.
The sooner this false bipartisanship ends, the better!!!
Mandy's return is political
However, his appointment should be seen in political terms. Brown has brought his enemy back because it has allowed him to do several things:
- First, Brown is correctly seen as a factional politician who holds grudges against his enemies. This appointment allows Brown to play against type as an inclusive leader who puts the country first.
- Second, it is a defensive and slightly desperate move as Brown is trying to shore up his position in the Labour Party. Brown realises that one fairly decent conference speech is not enough to keep at bay the Blairites within his party and government who have been undermining his authority by briefing the media. By bringing back the arch-Blairite it sends out a message to the plotters that he is willing to compromise. It is undoubtedly defensive because a strong Brown would have preferred to banish Mandelson to the Falkland Islands rather than make him a peer and a powerful Cabinet minister.
- Third, it helps a disunited Labour Party look united. He can say he has a Cabinet of Blairites and Brownites which will work together in harmony. The people that founded New Labour - Brown, Blair (who is in regular contact with him), Mandelson and Alastair Campbell - are also said to have put aside their differences to work together again to help Labour cling on to power.
- Fourth, it provides Brown with cover. Bringing the Blairite Mandelson into government has allowed Brown to promote his cronies. Thus, those responsible for the "balti house plot" to oust Tony Blair in September 2006 which Brown claimed he knew nothing about have been promoted. Step forward Chris Bryant (Deputy Commons Leader), Sion Simon (Skills Minister), Kevan Jones (Defence Minister), Wayne David (Wales Office), Tom Watson (Cabinet Minister) and Huw Irranca-Davies (Defra). With the exception of Kevan Jones, the only meagre talent the others have is loyalty to Brown. One of the biggest rewards though goes to Nick Brown who has been promoted to Chief Whip. Brown would not have been able to get away with this had he not have had the cover of his Mandelson appointment because Nick Brown was seen as pivotal in helping force Blair out and is fiercely loyal to Brown.
- Fifth, and finally, Brown is attempting to drive home his current political message against David Cameron – that “this is no time for a novice.” Mandelson (and Margaret Beckett) are old hands and old faces which add some gravitas to what was quite a young Cabinet.
Mandelson's return is a shrewd political move but it is also defensive, desperate and not without its risks. Mandelson is an incredibly divisive and polarising figure in the Labour Party. Mandelson has a reputation for playing fast and loose with truth and honesty. The fact that he has had to resign twice from Cabinet positions means he has shown questionable judgement at times. Mandelson has an incredibly high media profile which means his every word will be scrutinised – Mandelson has a long track record of briefing against Brown – and any lapses of judgement will be seized upon. Brown is taking a huge gamble by bringing him back. Mandelson will be the only person in a Cabinet of pygmies who can stand up to Brown. Given the history of bad blood between the two, Brown will find it very difficult to deal with a dissenting Mandelson. But Brown has given himself the problem of appointing an almost unsackable Cabinet minister. If their relationship broke down again Brown would be in big trouble. As Fraser Nelson has noted: "... Peter Mandelson, a world-class plotter and intriguer. He put the skills to great effect in Europe, and it's an incredibly bold move by Gordon Brown to appoint him into his Cabinet because if things get pretty tough for Brown six months down the road, say if he loses this Glenrothes by-election, people will immediately look to Peter Mandelson to be the man who organises any kind of plot or coup."
Tuesday, 7 October 2008
Is Vince Cable losing his touch?

Recount and the hanging chads

Friday, 3 October 2008
Will Europe like Brown recalling Mandelson?
Brown: Watch your back!
What does Benedict Brogan know that we don't?
Mandelson back in the Cabinet

Amazing! The enemy of Brown has just been brought back into the tent! No official news about what job he'll get, but looks likely that he'll be made a peer and then become Secretary of State for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform. Mandelson has formerly been Secretary of State for Trade and Industry.
Looks like Brown is trying to send out the message that he runs a united team of Blairites and Brownites and that he has appointed someone with international experience - given his current role as EU trade commissioner.
I can imagine the Tories having fun with this. Mandelson has been forced to resign twice from Cabinet during the Blair years and there are many anti-Brown quotes from Mandelson over the years.
This move would mean John Hutton will have to be moved - looks like defence - and also looks like the Unions have got something for all their money! They absolutely detest Hutton calling him the 'CBI's man in government'.
Also means Brown needs a new Commissioner - Geoff Hoon? Would Brown be bold enough to move his Chief Whip and appoint his deputy, Nick Brown, in his place - that would upset the Blairites given his role in forcing Blair out!
UPDATE:
- Mandelson will become Secretary of State for BER.
- John Hutton becomes new Defence Secretary
- Hoon is likely to become new EU Commissioner but not for another year. Will stay in the Cabinet in some capacity for the time being.
- Des Browne may become Secretary of State for the Nations.
Derek Draper has just said that the Tories will be really worried now Mandelson has come back in government. Hahahahahaha. Draper is a comedian! UPDATE 2:
- Geoff Hoon to be Transport Secretary
- Nick Brown to become Chief Whip - a lot of crap about 'balance' coming from the spin doctors.
- Margaret Beckett - you remember, that outstanding former Foreign Secretary - is rumoured to be returning to government.
UPDATE 3:
- Hillary Benn looks set to stay in his job at DEFRA.
- Des Browne to return to backbenches
- Sir John Bond to become 'Business Ambassador' - window dressing this. As Matthew Paris has just said, government can get advice from whomever it wants.
- Damian McBride - Brown's spin doctor - is to take a more backroom role. He has been blamed for briefing against Cabinet Ministers. He's quite a diversive figure known as Damian 'McPoison'!
- New Department for Energy and Climate to be formed - to avoid conflicts of interest between securing energy supply and fighting climate change.
UPDATE 5:
- Plans for a possible merger of the Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish departments to create a "ministry of the nations" have been put on hold, according to BBC's James Landale.
- Beckett to be a "Cabinet Enforcer"
- Ed Miliband to head up new Dept of Energy and Climate Change.
Thinking about the reshuffle, it seems to me that another message from it is that it is supposed to show government unity. Brown hopes that having a Cabinet that represents all wings of the party will help unify the party behind his leadership. This looks as a direct response to Cameron's repeated claims in his Conference speech that only he led a united party. Interesting to see whether this fragile unity will hold.
Still think the main message is that of 'experience'. Cameron will have to rise to the challenge and bring some big beasts of his own into his Shadow Cabinet. Alternatively, he needs to brand the reshuffle a desperate move bringing tired, has-been politicians back. Can't see the Daily Mail liking the fact that Mandelson, the Prince of Darkness, has been brought back... that should help Cameron. And some Labour backbenchers do not appear that happy with Mandelson's return either. Backbench Labour MP John McDonnell has said the Labour movement will be "perplexed" by the shock move and regard it as "extraordinary step backwards" for the party.
Thursday, 2 October 2008
So much for standing by your man...
Sir Ian Blair: Blogosphere abuzz with rumours of his resignation

Wednesday, 1 October 2008
Cameron's speech - Nulifies PM's novice attack

Cameron faced a difficult balancing act with his speech – how much time should he spend addressing the economy at the expense of other issues – but probably felt that with his emergency statement yesterday, he did not want to overdo the economy. Had he done so he would no doubt have been criticised for having given a one-dimensional Shadow Chancellor’s speech. As it was, he adopted the right serious, Prime Ministerial tone, reiterating many of the points he had made yesterday about the economy and giving a critique of the Labour years, but also talked about other issues which he considers key such as social breakdown. He used talk of people’s anxieties to nicely link to other themes such as Britain being at war in Iraq and Afghanistan. The Conservatives have always been the party of the military but the fact that Cameron chose to talk about the armed forces so early was no doubt meant as a riposte to Brown who only mentioned them as an afterthought at the end of his speech last week which those on the Right thought was disgraceful.
Much of the speech was in a measured tone with Cameron speaking with notes behind a lectern (rather than autocue, from memory, or TV screens a la Nick Clegg) to convey a more serious and statesmanlike image. However, at times Cameron became quite passionate especially when conveying stories about his constituents – particularly one about a small businessman who had lost his business and a man’s wife who had died without dignity from MRSA caught in hospital – and while he began his speech in sombre tones, he finished with a passionate, rousing and uplifting vision about Britain overcoming obstacles to reach better times ahead. Performance wise, Cameron has many of the gifts of Blair and Bill Clinton. At times he seemed to ad-lib, departing from his script so that he could speak direct to the audience without looking down at his notes. Whether genuine or rehearsed, it nonetheless made Cameron look more informal and his message heartfelt.
He talked about his passions and beliefs and the speech was designed to be a very personal – about him the man. He used it as a clever device, considering the political climate, to indirectly criticise Brown and Labour, subtly contrasting his opponents with himself without mentioning them. For example, he said: “I believe in building a strong team - and really trusting them. Their success is to be celebrated - not seen as some kind of threat. Thinking before deciding is good. Not deciding because you don't like the consequences of a decision is bad. Trust your principles, your judgment and your colleagues.” Here he was talking about himself but subtly he was clearly attacking Brown as a control freak who hoards power, does not delegate or trust his Cabinet colleagues, sees strong performances from his colleagues as threats to his leadership, and dithers over decisions because he is fearful of the consequences (here read: Northern Rock).
Cameron also took head-on the Prime Minister’s claim that this was “no time for a novice” making a powerful argument for change and deflating Brown’s ‘experience’ argument in what was perhaps the best part of Cameron’s speech. He said character and judgement were more important than experience. He said people wanted to know about his values and character, how he made decisions and how he operated. He said his values were conservative, not libertarian, and that the most important word for him was ‘responsibility’: “Personal responsibility. Professional responsibility. Civic responsibility. Corporate responsibility. Our responsibility to our family, to our neighbourhood, our country. Our responsibility to behave in a decent and civilised way. To help others. That is what this Party is all about.” Cameron said before he makes a decision he asks whether it will encourage or discourage responsibility. Cameron has talked about responsibility in his speeches before but it had added resonance after Brown had talked about the “age of irresponsibility” which the Conservatives say sums up Brown’s 11 years in power. Cameron said he could not prove he was ready to be PM – to say he was ready would be arrogant – the best he could do was to say who he is. He said his family was most important to him, that he was very patriotic, and that he was passionate about the Union. In a shot across the bows of Alex Salmond, he said he wanted to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, not of England. Cameron said the long-term was important and that if elected tough decisions would have to be made which he was ready for.
He then moved on to addressing the experience issue directly:
“What matters more than experience is character and judgment, and what you really believe needs to happen to make things right. I believe that to rebuild our economy, it's not more of the same we need, but change. To repair our broken society, it's not more of the same we need, but change. Experience is the excuse of the incumbent over the ages. Experience is what they always say when they try to stop change.”
These were some of his best lines as he linked the issue of experience with more of the same from tired governments which fear making the changes necessary because admitting change is needed would mean they would have to admit they were wrong. Cameron then gave an example of experience not being all its cracked up to be which was well received in the Conference hall:
“In 1979, James Callaghan had been Home Secretary, Foreign Secretary and Chancellor before he became Prime Minister. He had plenty of experience. But thank god we changed him for Margaret Thatcher.”
And then made a joke at Brown’s expense:
“Just think about it: if we listened to this argument about experience, we'd never change a government, ever. We'd have Gordon Brown as Prime Minister - for ever. I won’t go on; there are people up there in balconies…”
Cameron then shifted focus to what the country has received from the Gordon Brown experience during the past 11 years:
“Gordon Brown talks about his economic experience. The problem is, we have actually experienced his experience. We've experienced the massive increase in debt. We have experienced the huge rise in taxes. We experienced the folly of pretending that boom and bust could be ended.”
Finally, Cameron argued that the country did not need Brown’s experience; what it needed was real change:
“The risk is not in making a change. The risk is sticking with what you've got and expecting a different result. There is a simple truth for times like this. When you've taken the wrong road, you don't just keep going. You change direction - and that is what we need to do.”
It is a gamble by Cameron but he obviously believes that ultimately change will trump experience at the next general election.
Cameron then returned to the issue of the economy outlining what he saw as being at the heart of the financial crisis. He sad the ‘tap’ marked borrowing had been turned on and left on for far too long and that governments on both sides of the Atlantic had been guilty of believing the good times would go on forever. He also criticised bankers but reiterated his measured appeal that now was not the time to turn against them with left-wing zeal. Their time would come down the line, he said.
Cameron said Brown had made two bad decisions. 1) He had taken away the Bank of England’s powers to call time on debt back in 1997. 2) Government borrowing had got out of control after Brown became a spendaholic leaving the cupboard bare.
He said he believed in sound money and low taxes. Portraying the Conservatives as the party of prudence and economic stability, Cameron said he would restore the Bank of England’s powers removed by Brown, as well as financial responsibility and fiscal responsibility. He hinted at cuts in public spending saying he had asked all his Shadow Cabinet members to review every spending programme they had committed to and said big savings would be made from reforming the public services and that the Tories would establish an Office of Budget Responsibility so there could be no hiding place for governments and no fiddling of the figures.
In a dig at Brown, Cameron said he understood enterprise and that people created jobs, not governments. Brown, in his speech, said his government had created three million jobs. Even Brown has not made that many in the public sector and certainly has not made any in the private sector. Cameron said that Labour’s taxes and regulations had hurt business and that the Conservatives would cut corporation tax by 3p.
Leaving behind the economy for a second time, Cameron said he did not only want to be judged just by how he handled crises, but on two things: 1) the NHS and 2) “the long-term mission of the next Conservative government: to repair our broken society.”
He attacked Labour over their support for big government and signalled out David Miliband for particular criticism. Cameron said that in difficult times, Labour always argues for a bigger state. He said Miliband had been very arrogant for saying last week that unless government is on your side, you are on your own. He said for Labour there was just the state and the individual – nothing in between like families, faith groups etc. In a clever line, he said as far as Labour was concerned there was no such thing as society – clever because Labour has for years thrown this line at the Conservatives after it was first used by Margaret Thatcher.
Cameron said that the problem was not leadership (Brown or anybody else) in Labour; it was Labour. He accused the governing party of treating people like children; never trusting them.
Cameron said politics needed to be cleaned up. He said it was not a party issue but a Westminster one. He said he had shown leadership by standing up to vested interests, namely his MPs and MEPs over expenses. He then linked to another reason for the destruction of faith in politics, that is, when manifesto commitments are not honoured. This allowed him to throw some red meat to the party faithful by saying Conservatives will campaign in the European elections for a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty.
Cameron moved onto the NHS claiming Labour had blown its chance and proclaimed: “We are now the party of the NHS and that is the way it’s going to stay.” Labour will not like that one bit.
Returning to his theme of change, he said he would be as radical in social reform as Thatcher had been in economic reform and pledged this is how the Conservatives would fix the ‘Broken Society’. There has been some talk recently that Cameron had been pulling back from his ‘Broken Society’ assessment of the country, qualifying it, but he displaced any such notions in his speech saying those who disputed society was broken must be living in another world.
The Tory leader then sought to show his progressive credentials. He said society could be repaired but traditional approaches had only ever addressed symptoms not causes. He said the Tories were not an anti-state party. In the 20th Century state interventions had done much good. However, in the 21st century, there were diminishing returns to state interventions because they did not address the underlying causes of problems. He called the ‘family’ the “best welfare system there is” and the “first line of defence against social breakdown.” He said strengthening schools was the second line of defence and welfare reform the third. He said working together with Iain Duncan Smith, the former Conservative leader, the Tories had become the party for “social justice.” Again Labour would not like this claim. He then repeated his claim that the Conservatives were the true progressives and that Conservative means would deliver progressive ends such as ending child poverty. By this point I expect Labour supporters would have become apoplectic with rage with Cameron driving his ‘tanks’ on to areas they consider their own.
One key message of Cameron’s speech was that he was leading a united party unlike Brown. He even began his speech with a light-hearted joke that they were in the Symphony Hall in Birmingham and that it was good to know everyone in his party was playing the same tune – the clear implication being that this is not the case in the disunited Labour Party. Presentationally the message was rammed home with the entire Cabinet positioned behind Cameron on the stage. The TV cameras showed Cameron flanked by his top two – Hague and Osborne. He returned to this theme several times, especially at the end of his speech, declaring that his party was a “changed party. A united party.” Cameron said the Conservatives were “united in spirit and purpose.”
He acknowledged that the task for his party was to take people with them saying his plan for change involved rebuilding the battered economy, renewing the bureaucratised NHS and repairing Britain’s broken society. However, Cameron was keen not to raise expectations too high saying these were “difficult times” with “no overnight transformations.” He said he was “a man with a plan, not a miracle cure.”
Cameron then brought his speech to a rousing, passionate end by offering an optimistic appraisal of the future and saying only the character, leadership and judgement that the Conservative Party offers (in other words what he offers and Brown does not) could deliver the change the country needs:
“These difficult times need leadership, yes. They need character and judgment. The leadership to unite your party and build a strong team. The character to stick to your guns and not bottle it when times get tough. The judgment to understand the mistakes that have been made and to offer the country change. Leadership, character, judgment. That's what Britain needs at a time like this and that's what this party now offers. I know we are living in difficult times but I am still optimistic because I have faith in human nature… In our remarkable capacity to innovate, to experiment, to overcome obstacles and to find a way through difficulties… whether those problems are created by man or nature. We can and will come through. We always do. Not because of our government. But because of the people of Britain. Because of what you do - because of the work you do, the families you raise, the jobs you create… because of your attitude, your confidence and your determination. So because we are united… Because we have had the courage to change… Because we have the fresh answers to the challenges of our age. I believe we now have the opportunity, and more than that the responsibility, to bring our country together. Together in the face of this financial crisis. Together in determination that we will come through it. Together in the hope, the belief that better times will lie ahead.”
All-in-all, the speech was very good. It received rapturous applause as one would expect. He adopted the right Prime Ministerial tone for these austere times but refused to allow it to limit the scope of his speech and finished on an optimistic, uplifting note that was designed to offer the country hope and show he was the man to deliver much needed change. It might be criticised for not offering anything new in terms of policy pledges but Cameron sought instead to offer a detailed critique of the past 11 years, show the direction the Conservatives would take and their priorities for office, and importantly, to show himself as a Prime Minister-in-waiting who might not have the experience but has the values, character and judgement which is what matters which matters most. It was astonishing that the speech was 10 minutes longer than Brown’s yet felt so much shorter. Whereas Brown’s badly began to flag two-thirds of the way through losing structure and the audience’s attention, Cameron, like Blair used to do, was able to keep his voice and words interesting – a key advantage Cameron holds over Brown.