Reshuffles in the new year?

Most commentators expect that David Cameron will reshuffle his front bench team in January bringing more experience into his Shadow Cabinet. Two names that have been reported have been Ken Clarke, the former Chancellor and political heavyweight, and Iain Duncan Smith, the former Conservative leader who has rehabilitated his political career and become something of an expert on social justice and social breakdown. In the same sense that Gordon Brown brought Peter Mandelson back into government as Business Secretary (and de facto deputy Prime Minister) to add experience, Cameron could bring Ken Clarke into his shadow Cabinet as either shadow Chancellor (unlikely – it would create too much of a political storm as it would be seen as an admission that Osborne has been a failure and Tory economic policy has been a failure, not to mention the fact that Cameron and Osborne have a very close political relationship which would serve them well in government) or shadow Business Secretary (much more likely as it would help bolster the Tory business-economic team, be a counter-weight to Mandelson, and would not undermine Osborne). As for Iain Duncan Smith it has been speculated that he could become shadow Secretary of State for Work and Pensions. Chris Grayling would then be free to become Party Chairman, a role he would be good at, given that he is an able television performer and is good at taking the fight to Labour. Another benefit for Cameron of bringing Clarke and Duncan Smith into his team is that it can help counteract Brown’s charge that the Tories are “novices.” Some have argued that if Cameron does this it could undermine his message of change, though I would contend that bringing back two politicians is hardly likely to do that.

Gordon Brown could also choose to undergo a reshuffle in the new year. There has been some speculation that former Cabinet minister David Blunkett could be brought back into government. Peter Bingle, from Bell Pottinger Public Affairs, has also predicted that Ed Balls will be made Chancellor in the new year. I would be amazed if this happens. Although Darling is an unremarkable Chancellor and has faced criticism, he has taken a lot of flak on behalf of Brown who most people believe is still determining Britain’s economic policy. I remain to be convinced that Ed Balls would be better at providing Brown political cover even though Balls is closer to Brown than Darling. Moreover, I fail to see how Balls would be more reassuring to the public or the markets. He is not the greatest television or Commons performer and not somebody I can see the public particularly warming to during these difficult times. In addition, if Brown moves Darling, it might also look like an admission that his economic policy has been a failure and that he was making Darling carry the can for his own failings.