Should Brown go to the polls 'early' in 2009?

Will Gordon Brown call an ‘early’ general election in June 2009 (the same day as the European elections)?

I say 'early' but 2009 is when the election would ordinarily have taken place. The conventional view has been that Brown will call a general election in May or June 2010, waiting until the last minute. However, people have started to suggest that 2009 could now be on the cards as the Tory opinion poll lead has narrowed and Brown has got himself back in the game, aided and abetted by a pliant media all too willing to welcome back the 'Comeback King' and 'Saviour of the World', although it must be said that Labour is playing down such a suggestion, in public at any rate, mindful of the difficulties they experienced last year when a general election was discussed.

Why go for 2009?

1. The effects of the recession on the real economy are only just starting to be felt. By going to the polls in spring 2009, the effects of the recession may not be as bad as in 2010.
2. Moreover, the IMF and the European Commission have both predicted that Britain will suffer one of the worst recessions out of developed world economies and the CBI has predicted a deep recession. By 2010, the UK could still be in recession or, even if the first shoots of growth were being seen, the economy would not have picked up sufficiently to help Brown electorally.
3. Furthermore, Andrew Rawnsley and Robert Winnett have both argued that the Conservative strategy is based on playing a long-game over 18 months until 2010. Winnett wrote: “The Tories are betting everything on a 2010 election,” and added: “With big quick tax and interest rate cuts on the way, 2009 will be looking increasingly attractive for Brown. He won't be able to pull the same trick next year and the eye of the recession may be the best time for Labour to go to the polls. By 2010 they may be long forgotten and any recovery will be in the very early stages... The Conservatives will be hoping that Brown doesn't have the nerve to go early." Nevertheless, I would argue that the Conservative strategy is not as rigidly based on 2010 as Rawnsley and Winnett have argued. I'm sure this is their preference but their strategy could still be applied to 2009. By then they could have offered their own significant funded tax cuts and still use the “higher taxes under Labour” message in an election campaign. Moreover, by spring 2009 the tax giveaways from Brown may not have come through in time to be felt and therefore it would be too early to decide whether Brown was indeed the saviour he claims he is - though this does perhaps bolster his claim to see the job through.
4. An early poll could play into Brown’s hands because he could ask the British people to give him a mandate to steer the country out of recession using all his experience he gained as Chancellor for 10 years. On this, he has the opinion polls on his side. Polls are still showing that there is a contrast between people’s preferences now and in the longer term future. In the latest Populus poll for the Times (11 November), Gordon Brown has a large lead over David Cameron as the “right leader to deal with Britain’s economy in a recession” (52 percent to 32 percent). However, David Cameron beats Brown when people are asked who is “better able to lead Britain forward after the next general election” (42 percent to 35 percent).

These are persuasive arguments. If I were Gordon Brown I would go to the polls in 2009.

The Conservatives are confident they would win in 2010 because of a public appetite for change and this desire if anything is likely to be stronger in 18 months time after the electorate has really been able to experience the affect of the recession hitting the real economy with higher unemployment and falling house prices. The race will also be tighter in 2009 because by 2010 it is likely that Brown would be a busted flush.

That said, the final decision may all come down to the opinion polls. Oh my God, what am i saying? Brown does not look at polls! Polls in no way whatsoever sway his decisions on whether to call an election early or not! Back to the real world... Margaret Thatcher used to want at least a five percent lead in the polls before calling a general election. Despite all Brown's positive coverage for handling the banking crisis, Labour are still anything from 3 to 11 percent behind in the polls and the Tories are holding steady at just above 40 percent. Most of Labour’s ‘recovery’ has been at the expense of the Lib Dems and ‘others’. In addition, the polls that give the Lib Dems higher support also show a larger Tory lead over Labour. I would contend that these polls showing a larger Tory lead are the more accurate polls as, historically, the polls which show lower Labour support are more accurate. Moreover, polls tend to underestimate Lib Dem support because they are starved of media coverage which is not the case during a general election campaign. Whatever the reality, Brown would nevertheless prefer a sustained lead in the polls prior to going ‘early’ in 2009. He is a cautious man so if he does not have an election lead by say April 2009, 2010 would then still seem the more likely option. However, Brown has been bolder of late and may decide if the polls are tight he can build an election winning lead during the election campaign. A risky move but he may be advised that last year he was too cautious and paid the price so next year he should be bold to win Labour a fourth term in office.

We shall see. But I agree with James Forsyth on the Spectator's Coffee House blog that the Tories need to make 2009 as difficult as possible by talking about it lots so that Brown has to shut down the speculation and kick the election into the long grass of 2010 because he cannot afford another bout of election speculation that damaged him so badly last year when he looked like he was trying to cash in on his popularity, putting his interest above national interest.