As expected Senator Barrack Obama has won the US Presidential election. But sorry to be a party pooper, but given the extraordinarily high expectations that have been built up during the campaign, a President Obama will surely only disappoint.
It was always likely to be a Democrat year (spare a thought for Hilary Clinton - she must be gutted as 2008 was supposed to be her year), but Obama's victory comes at a time of huge difficulties. He has already indicated that one term might not be enough. In his in tray will of course be the economy. Talk seems to have been on some kind of Franklin D Roosevelt/Keynesian plan, spending money on America's infrastructure and creating jobs. But FDR's public works programme intended to lift America out of the Great Depression financed by federal borrowing did not help. As Andrew Neil has noted, although it did wonders for America's morale (and helped get FDR re-elected three times!) it's effect on the economy and unemployment was marginal. US dole queues only started to plummet when Roosevelt went on to a war economy footing as Hitler's War raged in Europe and he knew America could not forever avoid engagement in it.
Other issues in the in-tray are Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. Despite all the talk of pulling troops out of Iraq at the beginning of his campaign, Obama is not going to immediately pull out troops. Withdrawal will not be immediate and will be dependent on the realities on the ground. As for Afghanistan and Pakistan he faces huge problems. The European love affair with Obama will be sorely tested by the new President's foreign policy aimed at these two countries. Obama will want the Europeans to commit more troops to the NATO effort in Afghanistan but he will soon find out that Europe is weak and despite all the platitudes they will once again fail to deliver. I can also see the Europeans (and the rest of the world) falling out with Obama as US foreign policy fails to take the radical departure from the second term of the Bush Presidency they expect. Joy will turn to disappointment.
Furthermore, Obama also has to deal with Congress. It looks unlikely that the Democrats will win the magic 60 Senators they need in the Senate to prevent Republicans using the filibuster to talk out legislation. This might bode ill for his plans to radically reform health care in the United States. Nevertheless, the Democrats will dominate Congress - both the Senate and the House of Reps. But this might not be the advantage it seems. He will have to balance the conflicting demands of the hard and soft Left. Furthermore, have a Democratic Congress might impede his efforts to win a second term - if disappointment doesn't do that first. American's do not traditionally like one party dominating the Presidency and Congress for too long, preferring balance. This could offer the Republicans a way back in 2012 (so long as they get their house in order and under no circumstances adopt Sarah Palin as their Presidential nominee!!!). Finally, despite all his best intentions, Obama could be derailed by the one thing that afflicts all leaders... events dear boy, events!
That said, Obama has a huge mandate and has the enormous power of executive privilege. It is imperative that he hits the ground running and uses the goodwill he obviously will have at home and abroad to achieve as much as he can within his first 100 days. A couple of things I'd expect him to do to help extend this goodwill will be to announce the closure of Guantanamo Bay and also repudiate the Bush doctrine of pre-emptive military strikes. (Talking of which, President Bush has only 3 months or so left of his own Presidency. Much work is left to be done. He had better get cracking if he's to launch those tactical nukes at Iran and North Korea before he has to retire to his Texas ranch! Joke!)
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