Wednesday, 19 November 2008

PMQs - Economy back on centre stage

This week's PMQs was a much calmer affair than the overly heated and disgraceful scenes of last week. Baby P was brought up again but only briefly and in a much more consensual way. The Labour benches went quiet unsurprisingly when Baby P was being discussed.
David Cameron used his first three questions to ask practical questions about what the government was doing to help small businesses get access to credit. He said that the Tories had supported the government's recapitalisation of the banks but that it was clear that the steps the government had taken were not having the desired effect. The PM said that the government was doing all it could to encourage banks to lend more but Cameron said the government should do more. Brown responded by claiming that a fiscal expansion was needed but the Tories were opposed. Up to this point PMQs was a pretty dull affair. Important issues but not much light generated - no change there then - and no heat given the subdued mood.
The proceedings picked up a little once Cameron moved on to the issue of taxation but still the two leaders were not firing on all cylinders. There was a little more heat between them but no more light. Cameron began by saying he knew how desperate Brown was to go on his borrowing binge (scheduled to be announced in the Pre-Budget Report on Monday), but everyone wanted to know how he was going to pay for it? He asked the PM whether taxes would have to rise as the Chancellor, Tony McNulty and Lord Mandelson have said? Of course Brown did not answer the question. Brown said we will need a fiscal expansion for small businesses to bring back growth into economy. He accused Cameron of calling for fiscal measures that would need a fiscal stimulus to pay for them - which the Conservatives opposed. Brown then called the Tories the 'do nothing' party.
Cameron scoffed that it was amazing that a former Chancellor could have forgotten the difference between fiscal and monetary policy. He asked again: how would the PM pay for his tax cuts and public spending? At this Labour MPs were shouting "Cuts" at Cameron and making scissor movements with their fingers. Brown stirred at this point. "Oh yes, oh yes, oh yes ... let me tell him about the difference between monetary and fiscal policy!" Brown said Cameron was only advocating the use of monetary policy to help people through the recession but that everyone around world was saying monetary action was not enough. He said only the government was offering real help and accused Cameron of being a 'lightweight'.
Cameron responded by quoting Derek Scott - Tony Blair's former economics adviser - which invoked a reaction from the Brownites on the Labour benches as Scott is a well known critic of Brown's. When Scott was asked whether it was true, as the government claims, that this recession was largely not of their making, he said "that is largely drivel." Cameron then moved on to words the PM might be familiar with, quoting Brown himself who had previously said: "Unfunded tax promises simply do not add up. They mean tax cuts before an election leading to tax rises after an election." That is what he said as Chancellor a few years ago, Cameron said. And in a good line, the Tory leader said: "If he doesn't agree with his Chancellor or Business Secretary, does he at least agree with himself?" Brown then said only a few days ago the Leader of the Opposition had said borrowing had to be allowed to happen, but then changed his mind. This was another blatant distortion by Brown who knows very well that Cameron was talking about automatic stabilisers. Nevertheless, Brown pressed on saying the choice for his government was whether to help people during difficult times or to do nothing like the Tories in the 80s and 90s. He finished by claiming that he would act while the Tories would refuse to act.
It was clear from the exchange that Brown wants to frame the debate about steps the government is taking to help people now while Cameron wants to talk about the future consequences of those actions. If Cameron can outline significant FUNDED tax cuts he should be in a much stronger position against Brown though of course will have to defend his flank against Labour charges that the Tories will be taking a slash and burn approach to the funding of the public services. What was also clear from the exchange is that unlike members of his Cabinet, Brown is refusing to engage on the question of how he is to pay for his increased borrowing and spending. Maybe all will be revealed in the PBR on Monday, but tax rises look inevitable. The Tories will continue to make this an issue and the longer Brown refuses to acknowledge the truth, the more evasive, shifty and dishonest he will look.
As for the exchange between Nick Clegg and Brown, the Lib Dem leader said he supported the bank bailout plan as he was told there were strings attached to banks. But what concrete evidence did the PM have to show it was working? Brown outlined the steps he had taken and was taking such as expanding liquidity to prevent banks collapsing through recapitalisation, getting funding for small businesses, and meeting with banks and building societies regularly to see what the problem was. Brown said that if it was necessary to take further measures these would cost money and he hoped he would get Clegg's support. This suggested to me that these "further measures" may be included in the PBR.
Clegg attacked what he said was a "complacent reaction" from Brown. He said the PM struts about on world stage telling other countries to follow his plan but his own plan was not working here. He said he bet the banks could not believe their luck that they had been bailed out yet were able to take their bonuses while avoiding lending to businesses. Clegg asked if Brown was too weak to get tough on the banks will he consider lending money directly to small businesses instead? Brown said it was untrue that banks were giving their directors bonuses. He said that every country in world was having the same problem with bank lending. He admitted that banks did have an adversity to lending, and said that this had to be changed.
VERDICT
D
raw all round. Quite a subdued affair as a consequence of last week. Not much heat and even less light produced.

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