Ipsos MORI - 'The Verdict on Brown'

I’ve just come into contact with Ipsos MORI’s Party Conferences Briefing entitled ‘The verdict on Brown’.

It is an interesting slide-show document that provides an overview of where the parties and leaders stand PRIOR to the Labour and Tory party conferences.

The key messages from MORI are:

• David Cameron and the Conservative Party are still making real headway against Gordon Brown, with more than half the public agreeing that the Conservative Party is ready to govern.
• Cameron has struck a note with the populace, with two-thirds (63 percent) agreeing with his assertion that “British society is broken,” and half believing that “David Cameron represents modern Britain.”
• The Tories are now seen as better than Labour on having the best team of leaders, understanding the economic problems facing Britain and having the better policies on family issues.
• The Tories are also seen as having better policies than Labour on all key issues to voting except healthcare and education (but fewer voters now feel these matter in deciding who runs Britain).
• In contrast 44 percent say there is nothing they like about Gordon Brown and 69 percent are dissatisfied with the way he is doing his job as PM.
• However, half (51 percent) do agree Brown is going a reasonable job in difficult circumstances.
• Brown’s ratings are now where Major’s were after Black Wednesday – the Conservatives never recovered from this point and remained around 13 points behind in the polls for the best part of a decade.

What the MORI findings show is that far from Cameron's and the Conservative Party's poll ratings being simply a function of Brown's and Labour's unpopularity, the Tory leader has been able to make positive headway of his own - particularly with his messages about the 'broken society' and Cameron looks like he has successfully tapped into the zeitgeist of the 'modern', much as Blair once did, and this has contrasted badly with Brown, a man in his mid-fifties who has been in office for 11 long years.

It will be interesting to view the weekend opinion polls to see whether Brown's 'relaunch' conference speech (how many relaunches has this man had - was that his 102nd?) has helped his dire personal ratings, humanising him, and whether that in turn gives Labour a much needed fillip in the polls.

More to follow later on specific slides...